The National League has three strong contenders for this year’s Cy Young award.
Los Angeles Dodgers ace Zack Greinke posted an ERA of 1.66 ERA, becoming one of eight pitchers to meet that mark or better while qualifying for the ERA title since 1961. His teammate, Clayton Kershaw, is the first pitcher to strike out 300 or more batters since Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson in 2002. Finally, Chicago Cubs ace Jake Arrieta led the majors with 22 wins and an ERA (1.77) that ranked second in baseball.
Projecting forward using Steamer’s 2016 forecast in Tango’s Cy Young estimator, which projects how the award voting will go, shows us a familiar face will face competition from some new blood.
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
It’s hard to argue against Kershaw. He already has three Cy Young awards (and one other second-place finish) in the last four years and continues to elevate his rate of strikeouts while allowing fewer batters to get a free pass to first base.
His curveball was near unhittable in 2015, holding opposing batters to a .144 average against with 106 strikeouts in 201 at-bats ending on the pitch.
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2016 Steamer projection: 17-7, 2.09 ERA, 269 strikeouts
Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals
Scherzer was the front-runner for the first half of the season, posting a 10-7 record with a 2.11 ERA and 10.7 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In the second half, he was much less effective, allowing 20 walks in 96.2 innings after just 14 in the 132 innings prior to the all-star break.
Still, it’s hard to discount a bounce-back season from a pitcher that finished with two no-hitters in 2015 and five plus pitches in his arsenal.
2016 Steamer projection: 15-8, 2.79 ERA, 254 strikeouts
Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants
Bumgarner set career highs in strikeouts (234) and innings pitched (218.1) and provided the Giants with a quality start (three or fewer earned runs over six or more innings pitched) in 22 of his 32 games, four of which went the distance.
His command of the strikeout zone is higher than it has ever been (6-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio) and Bumgarner saw batters swing and miss on 12.5 percent of his pitches, nearly cutting the zone in half on these pitches.
2016 Steamer projection: 14-9, 2.81 ERA, 216 strikeouts
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David Price, free agent
It’s unknown which league he will be in during the 2016 season, but he will certainly contend for best pitching honors no matter which team he signs with.
Price was solid for the Detroit Tigers before being traded to the Toronto Blue Jays, where he simply caught fire, posting a 9-1 record and helping the team capture the AL East from the New York Yankees.
Overall, he got better as the stakes got higher during the course of the season, cutting his FIP in half in high-leverage situations.
2016 Steamer projection: 15-9, 2.84 ERA, 226 strikeouts
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